Galaxy Cuts Clarity Act’s 2026 Passage Odds to 50%

Galaxy has reduced its estimated probability that the Clarity Act will pass in 2026 to 50%. The digital asset firm attributed the downgrade to the shrinking amount of time available on the Senate calendar.

The assessment matters because the bill concerns crypto market structure, an area closely watched by digital asset companies and other industry participants. Galaxy’s revised estimate suggests the legislation’s path this year has become less certain.

The 50% figure represents Galaxy’s view of the bill’s prospects, rather than an official forecast or a change in the legislation itself. It effectively places the chances of passage at a coin toss.

With the Senate’s available legislative window narrowing, lawmakers have less time to advance the measure during 2026. Galaxy’s downgrade reflects that scheduling pressure rather than a reported final outcome for the bill.