10x Research Sees Bitcoin Risking a Drop Toward $55,000
10x Research founder Markus Thielen says bitcoin may break below $60,000 and fall toward $55,000 before setting a cycle low. His view is tied to dollar strength, a more hawkish Federal Reserve backdrop, and timing signals pointing to late August through October.
What happened?
10x Research founder Markus Thielen says bitcoin may break below $60,000 and fall toward $55,000 before setting a cycle low. His view is tied to dollar strength, a more hawkish Federal Reserve backdrop, and timing signals pointing to late August through October.
Why it matters
Bitcoin may have more downside before the current bear market finds a floor, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen. In a CoinDesk report, Thielen said BTC could break below $60,000 and reach $55,000 before forming what he expects to be the cycle low.
Bitcoin may have more downside before the current bear market finds a floor, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen. In a CoinDesk report, Thielen said BTC could break below $60,000 and reach $55,000 before forming what he expects to be the cycle low.
The call matters because it links bitcoin’s near-term outlook to broader macro conditions rather than crypto-specific news alone. Thielen pointed to a strengthening U.S. dollar, which he said has historically been a headwind for bitcoin, and to a more hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh.
That backdrop has pushed markets to debate whether the Fed’s next move could be a rate increase instead of a cut. A stronger dollar and tighter-rate expectations can pressure risk assets, including crypto, by making liquidity conditions less supportive.
Thielen does not expect the weakness to last indefinitely. He cited three indicators: global liquidity trends, the macro calendar, and bitcoin’s seasonal patterns, all of which he said point to a possible market low between late August and October.
One model tracking the rate of change in global liquidity points to late August as a key inflection point, according to the report. Thielen also noted that September has often been a weak month for bitcoin historically, followed by stronger performance in October.
The timing overlaps with Federal Reserve meetings in September and October, the U.S. midterm elections, and the Treasury Department’s quarterly refinancing announcement in early November. For now, the 10x Research view is that bitcoin may need to move lower before a more durable bottom emerges.