Bitcoin Enters a Historically Deep Valuation Zone as Market Pressure Builds
Bitcoin is trading near its 200-week average, a level CoinDesk reported has typically appeared late in past bear markets. Sentiment remains weak, with macro pressure, ETF outflows and policy uncertainty limiting the case for a quick rebound.
What happened?
Bitcoin is trading near its 200-week average, a level CoinDesk reported has typically appeared late in past bear markets. Sentiment remains weak, with macro pressure, ETF outflows and policy uncertainty limiting the case for a quick rebound.
Why it matters
Bitcoin has moved into a historically depressed valuation area, according to CoinDesk, with Checkonchain data showing BTC near its 200-week average. The model places bitcoin in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range, a zone that has generally appeared during the deepest phases of previous bear markets.
Bitcoin has moved into a historically depressed valuation area, according to CoinDesk, with Checkonchain data showing BTC near its 200-week average. The model places bitcoin in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range, a zone that has generally appeared during the deepest phases of previous bear markets.
The development matters because it suggests the market may already be in a capitulation phase, but not necessarily at the end of the downturn. CoinDesk cited Checkonchain’s warning that bear-market bottoms tend to unfold over time, with forced or price-sensitive selling followed by a longer stretch of sideways trading that tests remaining holders.
Sentiment data also points to stress across crypto markets. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 9, down from 11 a week earlier and 48 a month earlier, putting the market deep in “extreme fear.” Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 this week for the first time since 2024 before trading at $62,623 on Thursday, up 1.9% on the day but still lower for the week.
The bounce across major tokens was limited. Ether, BNB, solana and dogecoin posted modest gains, while XRP slipped, but CoinDesk reported that all remained lower over the previous seven days. Record ETF outflows were also cited as a continuing drag on crypto prices.
Macro conditions added to the pressure. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5% in May from April and 4.2% year over year, the fastest annual pace since early 2023, while core inflation rose less than economists expected. CoinDesk also pointed to fading odds of U.S. crypto legislation passing in 2026, global equity weakness, higher-rate expectations and geopolitical tension around Iran as factors weighing on the outlook ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting.