Bitcoin Miner Jiang Zhuoer Sees Bear-Market Bottom Near $42,000-$44,000
Chinese bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuoer expects BTC to bottom in the fourth quarter around $42,000 to $44,000, citing Strategy’s depressed market net asset value and a four-year cycle model. The forecast adds to a cluster of bearish market signals, though Jiang said his model is stronger on timing than on the exact price level.
What happened?
Chinese bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuoer expects BTC to bottom in the fourth quarter around $42,000 to $44,000, citing Strategy’s depressed market net asset value and a four-year cycle model. The forecast adds to a cluster of bearish market signals, though Jiang said his model is stronger on timing than on the exact price level.
Why it matters
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the LeBit mining pool and a prominent Chinese bitcoin miner, said bitcoin could fall to roughly $42,000-$44,000 before the current bear market finds a bottom. According to CoinDesk, Jiang made the forecast in Chinese on X, putting the potential low in the fourth quarter and about 30% below bitcoin’s level near $60,700 at the time of the report.
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the LeBit mining pool and a prominent Chinese bitcoin miner, said bitcoin could fall to roughly $42,000-$44,000 before the current bear market finds a bottom. According to CoinDesk, Jiang made the forecast in Chinese on X, putting the potential low in the fourth quarter and about 30% below bitcoin’s level near $60,700 at the time of the report.
The call matters because Jiang is tying the outlook not only to bitcoin’s price action, but to market sentiment around Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. He focused on Strategy’s market net asset value, or mNAV, which compares the company’s stock price with the per-share value of the bitcoin it holds.
Jiang said Strategy’s mNAV had fallen to 0.72, close to the 0.7 level seen on May 11, 2022, around the prior cycle’s turn. A reading above 1 implies investors value the company at a premium to its bitcoin holdings, while a reading below 1 suggests the market is valuing it at less than the bitcoin on its balance sheet.
In Jiang’s framework, that Strategy signal tends to arrive before bitcoin’s own cycle bottom. CoinDesk reported that bitcoin reached a low near $15,500 roughly six months after the 2022 mNAV low, and Jiang applied a similar lag to point toward a late-2026 bottom.
His price range comes from a separate four-year cycle model that assumes bitcoin’s volatility shrinks as the asset’s market value grows. The model produced a specific output of $44,016 for Oct. 31, but Jiang said it is more reliable for timing than for precise price forecasting, leading him to frame the low as a broader $42,000-$44,000 range across October to December.
The forecast arrives alongside other bearish signals cited by CoinDesk, including bitcoin trading near its 200-week moving average and pressure from the unwinding of the so-called debasement trade as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. The view is a market forecast, not a certainty, and it highlights how closely some traders are watching corporate bitcoin proxies as sentiment gauges.