Bitcoin Mining Network Grows More Sensitive to Price Moves, JPMorgan Says
JPMorgan says Bitcoin mining difficulty and hashrate are reacting more sharply to price swings as more miners operate near breakeven. The bank said pressure could persist while bitcoin remains below its estimated production cost.
What happened?
JPMorgan says Bitcoin mining difficulty and hashrate are reacting more sharply to price swings as more miners operate near breakeven. The bank said pressure could persist while bitcoin remains below its estimated production cost.
Why it matters
Bitcoin’s mining network is becoming more responsive to market swings as more miners operate close to breakeven, JPMorgan said in a recent report. The bank said mining difficulty’s sensitivity to bitcoin price moves has increased this year, with the six-month beta of difficulty relative to BTC price changes rising to 0.62.
Bitcoin’s mining network is becoming more responsive to market swings as more miners operate close to breakeven, JPMorgan said in a recent report. The bank said mining difficulty’s sensitivity to bitcoin price moves has increased this year, with the six-month beta of difficulty relative to BTC price changes rising to 0.62.
The shift matters because mining difficulty and hashrate are core indicators of the network’s economics. When prices fall below production costs, higher-cost miners may switch off machines, which can reduce hashrate and lead to lower difficulty adjustments. That makes the network’s operating conditions more visibly tied to bitcoin’s market price.
JPMorgan said mining economics have weakened in 2026, with bitcoin trading below its estimated production cost for five straight months. Citing CoinShares’ first-quarter mining report, the bank said about 20% of miners are estimated to be unprofitable.
The pressure has also affected miner behavior. Publicly listed mining companies sold more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter, according to data cited by JPMorgan, surpassing their combined sales for all of 2025.
The bank pointed to the second week of June, when mining difficulty fell 10%, calling it the second decline of that size this year. JPMorgan expects elevated sensitivity in hashrate and mining difficulty to continue as long as bitcoin remains below its estimated production cost, which it put at about $78,000.
Miners are also looking beyond bitcoin mining for steadier revenue. JPMorgan noted that companies in the sector are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, though those projects require significant capital and carry execution risks.