Bitcoin Options Show Defensive Positioning Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data

Bitcoin derivatives markets showed signs of panic on June 25, with options traders paying a large premium for protection against further BTC declines, according to CoinDesk. The one-week options skew showed puts trading at nearly a 25-point premium to calls, reflecting heavy demand for downside hedges as traders awaited U.S. core personal consumption expenditure data.

The setup matters because inflation data can influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy, which in turn affects risk assets including crypto. CoinDesk noted that a weaker-than-expected core PCE reading could suggest underlying inflation is cooling and reduce the case for additional Fed rate increases, potentially giving bitcoin room for a sharp sentiment reset.

FactSet estimates cited by CoinDesk expected core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge excluding food and energy, to rise 3.4% year over year in May, up from 3.3% in April. Headline inflation was expected at 4.1%, largely driven by energy prices.

Bitcoin had already recovered to about $61,500 after touching a 20-month low near $59,000 on Wednesday. CoinDesk compared the current options skew with similar peak put pricing in early February, when bitcoin formed an interim bottom just above $60,000 that held for four months.

The article also noted that the May inflation figures may be viewed as backward-looking because oil prices have since dropped sharply. WTI crude futures were around $70, well below the $100-plus levels seen during the Iran war in March and April, a change that could affect future inflation pressure.