Schwab Plans S&P 500 Event-Based Options as Prediction Markets Expand

Charles Schwab is preparing to enter the prediction markets race through a partnership with Cboe Global Markets, according to a Wall Street Journal report cited by CoinDesk. The planned product would let Schwab customers take yes-or-no positions on whether the S&P 500 closes above or below a specified level.

The move matters because prediction-style trading has been moving from crypto-native and specialist venues toward larger retail and brokerage platforms. CoinDesk noted that Coinbase and Robinhood have recently introduced prediction market offerings, while platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have drawn interest from traders seeking contracts linked to events.

Schwab’s planned contracts would differ from many traditional prediction market products. Rather than using a futures-style event contract tied to broad outcomes, the offering would operate more like a binary option: it would either pay a fixed cash amount or expire worthless based on the S&P 500’s closing level.

The product is expected to be made available to Schwab customers in the coming months, according to the Journal’s report. Schwab and Cboe have also discussed a related structure using Cboe’s Plus Zone feature, which could allow partial payouts when a prediction is close to the final outcome.

The companies have also considered expanding beyond the S&P 500 to other indexes or financial benchmarks. However, the reported plan is to focus on objectively verifiable financial-market outcomes, rather than contracts tied to politics, sports or other nonfinancial events.