U.S. Inflation Matches Forecasts as Softer Core CPI Lifts Bitcoin Slightly

U.S. inflation data for May landed largely in line with forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its June 17 meeting. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% month over month and 4.2% from a year earlier, matching economists’ expectations, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics figures cited by CoinDesk.

The detail that drew market attention was core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs. It increased 0.2% in May, below forecasts for a 0.3% rise and slower than April’s 0.4% increase. On an annual basis, core CPI was up 2.9%, in line with expectations and slightly above April’s 2.8% reading.

For crypto markets, the report mattered because inflation data remains a key input for interest-rate expectations. CoinDesk reported that the numbers reinforced the view that the Fed would keep rates at 350-375 basis points in June, while still leaving room for a 25 basis-point increase by year-end.

Bitcoin saw a slight uptick after the data was released but remained under pressure. CoinDesk said BTC traded just above $61,000 following the report and was mostly unchanged over the previous 24 hours.

Traditional markets were also mixed after the release. U.S. stock index futures were lower across the board, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.5%, and WTI crude oil continued to decline, falling another 1% on the day. Ahead of the CPI release, markets were pricing a 98% probability that the Fed would leave rates unchanged at its June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool cited by CoinDesk.