Bitcoin and Stocks Face a Volatile Second Half as AI and Fed Policy Take Focus

Bitcoin and equities are entering the second half of 2026 on sharply different paths. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence pushed technology stocks to record highs during the first half, while bitcoin fell 46% to $58,300 by Tuesday, according to CoinDesk.

The divergence matters because analysts expect broad economic policy and market structure to exert greater influence across asset classes. Kestrel data cited by CoinDesk showed correlations among stocks, bonds, commodities and cryptocurrencies rising in recent months, suggesting markets have become more responsive to policy developments than company-specific fundamentals.

Mark Connors, the former global head of portfolio at Credit Suisse and chief investment officer of Risk Dimensions, said AI is dividing companies into infrastructure beneficiaries and businesses vulnerable to disruption from large language models and AI agents. He pointed to weakness in consulting and software companies, including Accenture, Autodesk and Intuit, as evidence of that reassessment.

Connors expects uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and Treasury financing to keep markets volatile before financial conditions improve. The broader economy has remained resilient, but the interaction between monetary policy and increasingly correlated markets could produce substantial swings across both equities and crypto.

Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager at digital asset hedge fund Hyperion Decimus, said U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and institutional derivatives hedging have altered bitcoin’s trading behavior and weakened some historical links with macro indicators. He nevertheless argued that bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact and expects a bear-market bottom between $54,000 and $58,000, while waiting for a final bottoming pattern before declaring the downturn over.