Bitcoin Lags as U.S. Stocks Add Trillions in Market Value

The S&P 500 has climbed 3.12% this month, adding roughly $2.1 trillion in market capitalization and lifting its total value to a record $70.5 trillion, according to CoinDesk. Bitcoin has not matched that momentum, rising just 2% over the same period and trading around $64,600, a level it had already reached in July.

The divergence matters because bitcoin has often moved in line with equities since the market shock of early 2020. This time, analysts said the stock rally appears concentrated in artificial intelligence and semiconductor-related shares, rather than reflecting a broad risk-on move that would automatically pull crypto assets higher.

Tesseract Group’s Adam Haeems told CoinDesk that lower oil prices and hopes for normalized flows through the Strait of Hormuz may support risk assets, but the transmission is more direct for equities through lower business costs. For bitcoin, he said, the potential effect would work through inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy, which takes longer and remains uncertain.

Crypto is also dealing with its own market pressures. CoinDesk cited the $120 million Coldcard exploit, uncertainty around the Clarity Act, reports involving Strategy’s bitcoin sales, higher bond yields and falling stablecoin supply as factors weighing on sentiment. Haeems said USDT supply had fallen from about $190 billion in April to $183 billion, while USDC declined from $79.5 billion to $72 billion.

Positioning may be another reason traders are hesitant. Markus Thielen of 10x Research said many bitcoin traders are waiting for a possible October bottom based on the four-year halving cycle, while other analysts pointed to inconsistent demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs. Those funds recently posted a $61.53 million outflow before drawing $626 million this week, but market watchers said several days of sustained inflows would be needed to confirm stronger institutional demand.